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Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics and trend of lung cancer mortality in Suzhou, to predict the future lung cancer mortality by ARIMA model, and to provide a scientific basis for the research of lung cancer prevention and control strategy. Methods The annual change percentage (APC) was used to analyze the annual change trend of lung cancer mortality from 2001 to 2020, and the ARIMA optimal model was employed to predict the lung cancer mortality from 2021 to 2025. Results The average annual crude mortality of lung cancer in Suzhou from 2001 to 2020 was 46.45/100 000, while the standardized mortality was 23.51/100 000. In recent 20 years, the crude mortality showed an upward trend and the standardized mortality showed a downward trend (APC crude rate = 2.51%, APC standardized rate = -0.78% , P < 0.001). The standardized mortality of lung cancer in men was 3.22 times that in women. The mortality of lung cancer in people over 45 years old increased with the increase of age, but the mortality in the 30-59 years old group showed a downward trend year by year. ARIMA model predicted that the annual trend of lung cancer crude mortality will tend to be flat in the next five years. Conclusion The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in Suzhou shows an upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate decreases year by year, suggesting that we should pay attention to the prevention and control of lung cancer in the elderly, accurately identify high-risk population of lung cancer, promote health publicity and education, carry out lifestyle intervention, and popularize the early screening of lung cancer.
ABSTRACT
Objective: To understand the incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the Suzhou cohort, and explore the risk factors for the development of COPD in Suzhou, and provide a scientific basis for COPD prevention. Methods: This study was based on the China Kadoorie Biobank project in Wuzhong District, Suzhou. After excluding individuals with airflow obstruction and self-reported chronic bronchitis, emphysema, or pulmonary heart disease at baseline, 45 484 individuals were finally included in the analysis. Cox proportional risk models were used to analyze risk factors of COPD and calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval (CI) in the Suzhou cohort. The effect modifications of smoking on the association between other risk factors and COPD were evaluated. Results: Complete follow-up was available through December 31, 2017. Participants were followed up for a median of 11.12 years, and 524 individuals were diagnosed with COPD during the follow-up period; the incidence was 105.54 per 100 000 person-years. Multivariate Cox proportional risk regression models showed that age (HR=3.78, 95%CI:3.32-4.30), former smoking (HR=2.00, 95%CI:1.24-3.22), current smoking (<10 cigarettes/day, HR=2.14, 95%CI:1.36-3.35;≥10 cigarettes/day, HR=2.69, 95%CI:1.60-4.54), history of respiratory disease (HR=2.08, 95%CI:1.33-3.26), daily sleep duration ≥10 hours (HR=1.41, 95%CI:1.02-1.95) were associated with increased risk of COPD. However, education level of primary school and above (primary or junior high school, HR=0.65, 95%CI:0.52-0.81; high school and above, HR=0.54, 95%CI:0.33-0.87), consuming fresh fruit daily (HR=0.59, 95%CI:0.42-0.83) and consuming spicy food weekly (HR=0.71, 95%CI:0.53-0.94) were associated with reduced risk of COPD. Conclusions: The incidence of COPD is low in Suzhou. Older age, smoking, history of respiratory disease, and long sleep duration were risk factors for the development of COPD in the Suzhou cohort.
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Humans , Incidence , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive/epidemiology , Risk Factors , Smoking/epidemiology , Tobacco SmokingABSTRACT
Objective: To describe gastric cancer incidence in Suzhou cohort, explore the environmental risk factors of gastric cancer in Suzhou, and provide appropriate suggestions for gastric cancer prevention and control. Methods: The participants were from the Suzhou cohort of China Kadoorie Biobank. Baseline survey was conducted from 2004 to 2008, followed by long-term follow-up until December 31, 2013. After the exclusion of those who had been previously diagnosed with peptic ulcer and malignant tumor reported at baseline survey and gastric cancer within six months after enrollment, a total of 50,136 participants were included. Cox proportional risk models were used to identify risk factors of gastric cancer and their hazard ratios in Suzhou. The effect modifications of gender on the association between risk factors and gastric cancer were analyzed. Results: In the follow-up of 7.19 years (median), 374 gastric cancers cases occurred. The standardized incidence was 94.57 per 100 000 person-years. Multivariate Cox proportional risk model analysis found that age (10 years old as a age group, HR=2.20, 95%CI: 1.92-2.53, P<0.001), current smoking (HR=1.84, 95%CI: 1.10-3.07 P=0.020), consumption of preserved vegetables weekly (HR=2.28, 95%CI: 1.28-4.07, P=0.005) and daily (HR=2.05, 95%CI: 1.16-3.61, P=0.013) were risk factors for gastric cancer. Female (HR=0.44, 95%CI: 0.25-0.76, P=0.003) and refrigerator use (10 years as a limit, HR=0.85, 95%CI: 0.74-0.97, P=0.016) were protective factors for gastric cancer. Further analysis showed that there was heterogeneity between males and females in the association between refrigerator use years and the incidence of gastric cancer (P=0.009), and there was an interaction effect between gender and refrigerator use on the incidence of gastric cancer (P=0.010). Conclusions: The incidence of gastric cancer in Suzhou cohort was high. The risk factors of gastric cancer varied. There was a synergistic interaction effect between gender and refrigerator use years on the incidence of gastric cancer.